Covid-19 Public Service Announcement

[frijolee]

If you look at the facts, COVID-19 isn't much more deadly than the common flu.
The vast majority of people who catch it experience something akin to a mild flu, and recover in a few days.
It's only really dangerous if you're elderly or already have an immune disorder.  In fact, children are the least affected by it.

Cobra,

I think you might want to look at the facts again.

Latest mortality ratings from the WHO have COVID-19 pegged at 3.4% (up from the prior estimates of 2.3%).  The overall for the common flu is 0.1%.  You say "not much more deadly"  I say 30x times more is a huge problem.  I haven't seen a single estimate that has it less then 10x a deadly as the flu and it's likely to affect many more folks than the flu by the time we're done.  Yes it disproportionally affects the elderly and immune deficient, yes kids are least affected.  You're still going to kill Grandma.   



The second problem is all about exponential math and what it does to our health care system.  Particularly available beds and ventilators.  How do you get treatment for the common flu, or for a car accident or anything else when this many folks are tying up the system?  I like math and the best (but also most sobering) article I've found was this:

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

It's long but really worth a read and it makes a strong case that "it's only really dangerous"...  to anyone who relies on the US health care system.  Which is all of us.

Most of the data I've seen has us tracking about 11 days behind Italy. 



As of this morning we're actually only about 10 days behind of Italy with 7034 cases as I type per (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html).  Exponential math is a bitch.  I'm sure you've seen the "flattening the curve" argument.  The problem no one seems to be discussing is that flattening the curve doesn't change the area under the curve, it just lengthens the duration of the event.  What does lengthening the event do to our economy?  I get that we're trying to slow the spread and avoid overwhelming the system, but best case is what?  We slow the spread from doubling every 3 days to doubling once a week?  That still doesn't get us close to having a vaccine.  Doubling once a week for a year--which would be much slower than at present--means 2^52 = 45 trillion, given the population of the earth is only 7 billion that says we're going to hit that in 33 weeks (under an unrealistic best case scenario). 

Brass tacks: this thing is going to run it's course and without a vaccine it seems unless you're truly off grid remote, we all still get it eventually...  Maybe the extra time helps the health care system prep and respond better.  I can hope.

If the responsible thing is to keep kids home since they're monster virus carriers (even if not much affected themselves) I've seen estimates the 38% of nurses have school age kids.  How many cops have to stay home with kids?  This is before we talk about restaurants and sports and what not.  Screw 15 days (that some folks are talking about) I really think we're in this all the way till a vaccine, or until so many folks have had it that the health care system can begin functioning again and we all just resign ourselves to getting it.

I live on an island that has tourism far and away as it's number one economy.  Who the hell is crazy enough to want to jump on a plane voluntarily these days?  Hawaii is getting decimated.  There's no way around it.  That killer house we just bought?  Its value is probably getting cut in half this year.  As long as I'm able to do my job (remotely, which we already are) we can probably weather it and in 10 years it's all okay.  There are going to be a lot of folks less fortunate.

But yeah...  I'm taking this REAL seriously.

Whatever you think about Trump.  History is not going to be kind to his initial laissez faire "it'll all miraculously go away" approach.  On the one hand he will be right (eventually), but the world is gonna take a beating in the next couple years while we wait for that.  Time to hunker down and shelter in place as best you're able.  You don't need to hoard TP but I would be sure you're well stocked on Advil and Tylenol (fever reduction).

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/26/809650625/a-guide-how-to-prepare-your-home-for-coronavirus

Stay healthy, hunker down, and avoid things that might end up requiring medical care.  Next month won't be a good time to crash on a dirt bike.

[wickedrx7]

Damn you Joel, this makes me sad... I am heading back out to the garage.....

I don't see how this is going to end anytime soon, even if you flatten the curve, what is going to stop a sharp rise after we all get back to normal events.  The only wild card I can see is if we can develop a treatment in the very near future to sharply reduce the death rate.  We all know that a Vaccine is at least a year away, I really don't think our economy can handle a year in "Stall mode". 

OK, now I am down the rabbit hole.. I need to go to the garage and build something.

[MPbdy]

Every day that passes I take more and more parts off my car for questionable purposes.  I expect if I get quarantined the body is coming off and it is getting rewired.  Only problem is I'm not making any real money for frivolous purchases right now either...we went from a very strong economy for capital purchases to everyone being hermit crabs.

They've already cancelled my race season out through the end of May.  This is cancelling two of our biggest races of the year, and essentially one of my only planned vacations to race one of them.

[largeorangefont]

The virus is a concern, but it is a media driven panic. Governments are paranoid they wont do enough, and the overreaction is always justified because of how many were "potentially" saved.

Look at:
Y2K
Wildfires
Rain
Hurricanes
Zika
Swine Flu
EVERY flu season
Climate change.

All of those are/were concerning events but propaganda and hyperbole were used to stoke fears in many cases. In a few cases they were justified. 

The death rate of the CoronaVirus I feel is vastly off. Thousands of people have already had the virus and gotten better and were never even tested or counted. The virus has been here for a couple months, just no one was looking for it. The real numbers will never really be known. Only the people that have tested positive, are/were sick in a hospital or died are counted. If you are not having trouble breathing and are of a younger age in many cases they aren't even testing you. So it all sounds way worse than it probably is from a numbers perspective. Of the thousands that have had it, why are you not seeing more interviews with people that are no longer sick? Because that does not fit the narrative.

Again it is a big concern, especially for older people or those with preexisting conditions, but it is far from a death sentence. The problem is we don't have the capacity to treat everyone that needs treatment over the course of 2 months... so people will die.

Also the problem with "flattening the curve" is that you are lengthening the curve, which further decimates the economy. I was planning on more property purchases this year, but I will be throwing that investment money into the markets when this shakes out a little further.

[frijolee]

I've been spending evenings wiring my garage and workshop.  If you have to be quarantined it's actually not a bad way to go. 

[65imp]

Look at:
Y2K
Wildfires
Rain
Hurricanes
Zika
Swine Flu
EVERY flu season
Climate change
killer bees
dying bees
immigration
mass shootings

The list goes on and on.  The real people bearing the burden of this are those who don't have the financial ability to go months without paying rent. 
The folks with paid time off/work from home/extra sick time can just shrug and wait it out. 
The REAL problem is panic.  Statistically 20% of the economic hit from a pandemic is the actual result of the virus (including the time off).  80% of the economic loss is from PANIC.
The health risks are for those with standard problems who can't get quick care due to the impacted healthcare system.  You get the flu, pneumonia, hypoglycemia, corneal ulcer from overwear of your contact lenses?  Bad times. 
Heroes are the ones who remember to care for each other, share resources, and chill the fuck out. 

[digitalsolo]

My wife is a teacher, so she's likely pretty safe, job wise.    I work for a healthcare company, so I'm (hopefully) pretty safe as well, especially since our company is designed around a basically 100% remote work force.   My sister is a nurse practitioner, so her job is VERY safe, my Mom works for the city/state and my Dad drives a semi.   So luckily my immediate family is pretty safe, job wise.   We're all also pretty healthy, though my Dad is over 60 and has some minor respiratory/cardio stuff.   He also got in pretty good shape over the past year, lost 40 lbs, works out every day, etc.   So he's at least not terribly bad off.   My grandparents that are still around are all in pretty good health, but honestly it's as much luck for them as anything right now. 

It sounds bad, but at the moment I'm just going to stack as much as I can into liquid savings for just in case, and hope that the main economic BS blows over in the next 12-18 months and I stay employed.  The good news is I already paid for most of this year's car stuff, so I shouldn't need to burn much cash flow for toys. 

The only particularly scary thing is like Joel said, if we overload our medical system, we can't handle the normal stuff properly.    That's concerning.   A huge portion of the population isn't earning much if any income right now.   That's concerning.   Shit's all pretty concerning.   I'mma go weld some stuff.

[Cobranut]

My wife got word from her employer yesterday morning that they're shutting down after an employee who tested positive was sent home sick.
Another guy in my group's wife works there as well.  He got the message earlier and called in.
He was told to stay out for now until the test could be confirmed.  I had already gotten in, but they decided to send me home as well, so we're both working from home until further notice.

Neither I nor my wife are showing symptoms, though I have a lingering cough from a cold I had about 3 weeks ago, but no fever.

On the bright side, once I get all the online work I can do caught up, maybe I'll finally make some progress on the race car while I'm home. 

[freeskier7791]

The economic impact will most likely be felt most by those that are working hourly type jobs paycheck to paycheck.  I have been working from home since Monday, and so far at my company everything is going as usual.  I will say we have experienced some challenges from our Asian suppliers earlier this year, but still there was not a huge impact.


What is concerning is that major automakers are looking to shutdown, that will cause a trickle down effect that could take years to recover from.

[wickedrx7]

The economic impact will most likely be felt most by those that are working hourly type jobs paycheck to paycheck.  I have been working from home since Monday, and so far at my company everything is going as usual.  I will say we have experienced some challenges from our Asian suppliers earlier this year, but still there was not a huge impact.


What is concerning is that major automakers are looking to shutdown, that will cause a trickle down effect that could take years to recover from.

Agree 100%.  I am worried about my family and friends that work retail, own small businesses and work in the food service industries.  These are the people that are really going to feel the immediate pain. 

The automotive plants are all shutting down which is going to effect a portion of my work as I am in the automation industry.  I have seen a drastic slow-down of activity over the last week which is alarming. I am sure this will put a hold on most capital projects for the near future so we will feel the affects for a longer period of time.   

[Cobranut]

The economic impact will most likely be felt most by those that are working hourly type jobs paycheck to paycheck.  I have been working from home since Monday, and so far at my company everything is going as usual.  I will say we have experienced some challenges from our Asian suppliers earlier this year, but still there was not a huge impact.


What is concerning is that major automakers are looking to shutdown, that will cause a trickle down effect that could take years to recover from.

The largest economic effect will be felt by those, like myself, who plan to retire in the next couple years.
Hopefully they'll have a vaccine and this thing will mostly be over within a year.

As long as voters have enough sense to not blame it on Trump and he is re-elected, the market should recover fairly quickly.  God help us if he loses to any of the current dem challengers. 

Fortunately I have enough investments that aren't exposed to market downside risk, that it shouldn't wipe me out, but if it drags on long enough it could be painful.
On the bright side, the market downturn is allowing my contributions to buy more shares every paycheck.

[frijolee]

Since I opened with a discussion on exponential math, I noticed some good news this morning.

Found a handy link with state by state case load growth rates.
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/18/u-s-coronavirus-growth-rates-show-many-states-could-close-behind-new-york/5072663002/

Scrolling down a bit and I saw this:

[attachimg=1]

At first glance some folks might think, oh look we're reaching a peak!  Good news right?  Wrong.  It's not a peak, this is a logrithmic scale.  Everywhere except South Korea is still accelerating like gang busters.  So why did I say it's good news?  The good news is that we're at least not on purely exponential curve.  On a log scale exponential growth is a straight line.



So that says the cruel calculus of 2^whatever-your-assumption doesn't fully hold and we don't really know whether we overwhelm the system or no.  A conservative posture remains important but at least intervention matters.

Stay safe and good success on all your projects!
-Joel

[largeorangefont]

Look at:
Y2K
Wildfires
Rain
Hurricanes
Zika
Swine Flu
EVERY flu season
Climate change
killer bees
dying bees
immigration
mass shootings

The list goes on and on.  The real people bearing the burden of this are those who don't have the financial ability to go months without paying rent. 
The folks with paid time off/work from home/extra sick time can just shrug and wait it out. 
The REAL problem is panic.  Statistically 20% of the economic hit from a pandemic is the actual result of the virus (including the time off).  80% of the economic loss is from PANIC.
The health risks are for those with standard problems who can't get quick care due to the impacted healthcare system.  You get the flu, pneumonia, hypoglycemia, corneal ulcer from overwear of your contact lenses?  Bad times. 
Heroes are the ones who remember to care for each other, share resources, and chill the fuck out. 

LOL I forgot about the bees.

Yea A lot of people are going to be kicked in the nuts if this continues another month.  On the flip side it will turn to a tremendous opportunity for a lot of people that are prepared and want to better their financial positions going forward.

[Powaah]

Since I opened with a discussion on exponential math, I noticed some good news this morning.

Found a handy link with state by state case load growth rates.
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/18/u-s-coronavirus-growth-rates-show-many-states-could-close-behind-new-york/5072663002/

Scrolling down a bit and I saw this:

[attachimg=1]

At first glance some folks might think, oh look we're reaching a peak!  Good news right?  Wrong.  It's not a peak, this is a logrithmic scale.  Everywhere except South Korea is still accelerating like gang busters.  So why did I say it's good news?  The good news is that we're at least not on purely exponential curve.  On a log scale exponential growth is a straight line.



So that says the cruel calculus of 2^whatever-your-assumption doesn't fully hold and we don't really know whether we overwhelm the system or no.  A conservative posture remains important but at least intervention matters.

Stay safe and good success on all your projects!
-Joel

Unfortunately the validity of some of the data on that graph is questionable. China has changed their definition of a covid case at least 6-7 times throughout the past few months, which has caused the trends they report to look very odd and just not reliable. Korea is also using a test with both very poor sensitivity and specificity (in the 50% range.) I think the curve more fits with the EU countries.

I'm a physician in NC, and we had our first 2 cases in my clinic yesterday.  The next few weeks are going to be interesting.

[wickedrx7]

Since I opened with a discussion on exponential math, I noticed some good news this morning.

Found a handy link with state by state case load growth rates.
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/18/u-s-coronavirus-growth-rates-show-many-states-could-close-behind-new-york/5072663002/

Scrolling down a bit and I saw this:

[attachimg=1]

At first glance some folks might think, oh look we're reaching a peak!  Good news right?  Wrong.  It's not a peak, this is a logrithmic scale.  Everywhere except South Korea is still accelerating like gang busters.  So why did I say it's good news?  The good news is that we're at least not on purely exponential curve.  On a log scale exponential growth is a straight line.



So that says the cruel calculus of 2^whatever-your-assumption doesn't fully hold and we don't really know whether we overwhelm the system or no.  A conservative posture remains important but at least intervention matters.

Stay safe and good success on all your projects!
-Joel

Unfortunately the validity of some of the data on that graph is questionable. China has changed their definition of a covid case at least 6-7 times throughout the past few months, which has caused the trends they report to look very odd and just not reliable. Korea is also using a test with both very poor sensitivity and specificity (in the 50% range.) I think the curve more fits with the EU countries.

I'm a physician in NC, and we had our first 2 cases in my clinic yesterday.  The next few weeks are going to be interesting.

Just wanted to say thank you for being on the front lines. You and your staff are our soldiers right now. 

Cases are popping up everyone which is super concerning. We should have started this about three weeks ago.